American League MVP Watch

About a week and a half before the 2013 All-Star Break, Major League Baseball has quite a competitive race for the American League Most Valuable Player award.  You have guys like Chris Davis, who has hit 32 home runs already this season.  You also have shutdown pitchers like Max Scherzer, who is currently 13-0 and showing no signs of stopping.  Who will be hoisting the AL MVP trophy at the end of the year?  You can't be certain, but almost halfway through the season, you can pretty much narrow it down to a few top candidates.

Chris Davis

Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles first baseman.

Having 32 home runs before the all-star break will no doubt make you a contender for your league's MVP award.  Chris Davis has been on a tear all season, batting .329 and slugging .721 along with his immense home run totals.  The thing that makes Davis so special is power.  Out of 301 at-bats, he has 99 hits and 31 (nearly one-third) of those hits have been home runs!  No, he's far from blinding quick.  He's stole 7 bases throughout his six year career (none in 2013) and only 3 triples (again, none this season).  But his power makes him one of the most intriguing players to watch in the game today. Remember, Chris Davis has not always been a name that immediately aroused thoughts of home runs and power offense.  In fact, he was pretty mediocre his whole career leading up to the 2013 season.  From 2008 to 2012, he averaged .285, .238, .192, .266 and .270 at the plate.  Not anything special.  If you really want to see how dramatic Davis's 2013 breakout has been, look at Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  Wins Above Replacement is a sabermetric baseball statistic designed to show the number of additional wins a player would contribute to a team compared to a replacement level player at that position, usually a minor league player or bench player.  So between his rookie year, 2008, and 2011, his best WAR was 0.9 as a rookie.  He never again posted a WAR higher than 0 until 2012, when he managed 1.3.  In 2013, his WAR spiked greatly to 4.1.  You can also look at OPS, which is a players on-base percentage plus his slugging percentage.  Up to 2013, his highest OPS was .880, once again in his rookie year.  1.126 is Chris Davis's current OPS on the 2013 season.  His home run total is the highest in Major League Baseball, while his batting average and RBI's (83) are second in the American League, trailing Miguel Cabrera in both categories.  His WAR is third in the American League to Cabrera and young teammate Manny Machado, who currently holds the highest WAR in the Majors thus far.  Clearly, Chris Davis is a top name in the AL MVP talks, and rightfully so.

 

 

Miguel Cabrera

Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers third baseman.

Miguel Cabrera won the American League MVP award last year, and his stats this year are even more imposing.  Cabrera is currently holds the AL's best batting average (.368) and the AL's most RBI's (85).  He is also a huge power threat, with 26 home runs on the year, second in Major League Baseball to Chris Davis.  He also holds the second best WAR in Major League Baseball to Manny Machado.  Last year, Cabrera batted .330.  His current OBP is .458, compared to .393 in 2012.  At the moment he's slugging .678.  Last year?  .606.  But there is one area that Cabrera has not bettered himself in since last season, and it is important when you are in MVP talks.  That area is his WAR.  His 2012 WAR was a whooping 6.9.  This year, however, he stands at 4.9, which is still second in baseball.  A guy's WAR is important when you are looking at his possibility of being named MVP because MVP stands for Most Valuable Player, so the MVP award should be awarded to the player who is most valuable.  WAR was designed to show how valuable a player actually is to his team.  So if Cabrera was a 6.9 in 2012, but now he's a 4.9, that clearly shows Cabrera is not as valuable this year as he was last.  He may have better stats this year, and he may be playing better, but he is not as valuable so he may not be the Most VALUABLE Player.  Just a thought.  Nevertheless, Miggy also won the triple crown in 2012.  The Triple Crown is achieved by leading your league (AL or NL) in batting average, RBI's and home runs.  While Cabrera leads the American League in the first two categories, he is in second place in AL home runs, 6 behind Chris Davis.  While the complicated world of Wins Above Replacement does not support Miguel Cabrera as 2013 American League MVP, all of his other numbers certainly say he is close to it.

 

 

Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers right-handed starting pitcher.

Who is the Tigers ace?  Quick to say Justin Verlander, huh?  But the guy who's outthrowing them all in Detroit is not Verlander.  It's Max Scherzer.  Known more for his eyes than his arm, Scherzer has been tearing it up.  As you can see, Scherzer has two different colored eyes.  His left eye is brown, while his right is blue.  Yesterday he became the first pitcher in 27 years to begin a season 13-0.  He also holds a 3.09 ERA.  If you're talking AL Cy Young Award contenders, Scherzer is no doubt among the top guys for that.  He's got a better chance at winning a Cy Young than an MVP because the Cy Young Award is Scherzer competing against other American League pitchers, while the AL MVP could go to any player in the American League.  The last pitcher to win a Cy Young Award and an MVP in the same season was Justin Verlander in 2011.  But Verlander didn't start 2011 13-0, as Scherzer did this year.  Verlander finished 2011 24-5, and posted a career high 8.3 WAR, which is still his career high today.  Scherzer's WAR is currently 3.5.  Many have argued that the pitcher's win-loss record is not a very credible statistic, and that the win-loss record is a team stat rather than an individual one.  Even Scherzer himself has said that his record is not a reflection of him, but of his team, calling the pitcher win-loss record a "fluky stat".  I tend to agree.  It all depends on how your team's offense is producing the day of your start and how your defense plays behind you.  You could pitch a complete game and give up no earned runs, but your team could still lose by not producing offensively and letting unearned runs cross the plate, and you would still get a loss on your record and people would judge you by it.  It could go the other way too; you could surrender six earned runs, but your team's offense has a monster day and overcomes that deficit, so you get a win and, once again, everyone looks at your record and judges you by it.  It's not very credible at all.  So lets look at ERA.  Scherzer currently has a 3.09, but what did Verlander put up in 2011?  2.40.  Yeah, 2011 Verlander has the advantage in ERA and WAR, which, as I said earlier, is a vital stat if you're looking to win MVP.  Scherzer's current WHIP (Walks and Hits Per Innings Pitched) is 0.92, the same as Verlander's in his 2011 MVP year.  So yes, there are some holes in Scherzer statistically that may not support him as MVP, but that record?  Well, it may be a fluky stat, but going 13-0?  That's 13 games you helped your team win, and that's valuable.

 

 

Dustin Pedroia

Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman.

Pedroia is batting .323, which is third in the American League.  His WAR is 4.3, tied for third place in the AL with Chris Davis.  He's never been a huge power hitter, with 95 homers in 7 and a half years in the bigs, and he's only slugging .445 this year, but he hits the baseball, and that's really all you need.  One of the best contact hitters in the league today, he is extremely vital to his teams success.  Without him, the AL North is a completely different division.  On his resume, Pedroia has a rookie of the year in 2007, an AL MVP award in 2008, Gold Gloves in 2008 and 2011, and a Silver Slugger in 2008.  He's having a good season, and he's definitely in the AL MVP conversation, but he's not my pick.  He's very valuable, extremely.  But not most valuable.

 

 

Manny Machado

Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles third baseman.

20 years old.  The age of Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles third baseman.  Leads all of baseball in WAR at 5.0.  Batting .320, good for fourth in the American League.  The guy on the other side of the infield at Camden Yards, Chris Davis, has had so much hype this season that you almost forget about how much of a monster season the young Machado is having.  If you go by the numbers, you can see that Manny Machado actually has a legitimately strong argument for AL MVP, as he leads all of baseball in WAR, the ultimate statistic for determining the value of a player.  He did only play 51 games last year, but over that span his WAR was 1.5.  Talk about increasing your value...  His OPS went from .739 last year to .834 this year.  The world of Wins Above Replacement claim Manny Machado as the Most Valuable Player.  We'll have to see if the rest of baseball does.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My Prediction: Chris Davis will win the 2013 American League MVP award.